Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Beware of Bias


Well the question that I posed in the last blog - I have a solution. Solution that requires people working in these organizations to look at and implement.


Generally we are all are likely to go with what worked in the past very well and we are led further astray if that past outcome has worked out successfully by any chnace. It stays in our brain then for next 10 years. Me Ernest H Foreman Co - author of Decisions by Objectices calls it " anchoring bias". It is an unbelievably powerful influence that can impair your decision making process. Sounds familiar. It does. To me atleast.


The only way to counter it would be to look for disconfirming evidence. The first precedent that comes to mind is often nearer in time to the current decision than it is closer in similarity. get past the recentness bias by coming up with atleast two events from the more distant past that seem any way applicable , then try to make them work better. Phew !


Heavy stuff. But worth considering in terms of changing our thinking. It applies to all situations including those at personal, family front.


Bye.

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